ANSWERED on Mon 17 Aug 2009 - 3:27 pm UTC by davidsarokin
Question: Most reliable sources quoting Total Federal Tax Revenue & Unfunded Liabilities
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Asked by schmooz on Mon 17 Aug 2009 - 2:26 pm UTC:
Mornin All, I am not writing a term paper! Waaaaaaaaay too old. There are many websites out there that claim to be accurate resources. I am looking for: 1. Link(s) to the most accurate quote on total federal tax revenue for the most recent year it is available. (and accurate sources with estimates for even more recent years) 2. Link(s) to the most accurate source quotes on our current, total, national debt - right now and with projections ahead. (Throw in the link to what you feel is the most reliable "Internet National Debt Clock," if you can) 2. Link(s) to sources that clearly define "Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security un-funded liabilities. What does this mean, How are accurate are quotes on"un-funded liabilities" AND how are they related to our current national debt? The answer will be greatfully accepted by anything you provide to me (at the price I am able to pay . . . hard times are-a here). I would really value anthing that other Researchers or UClue-ers could add.
Answer by Researcher davidsarokin on Mon 17 Aug 2009 - 3:27 pm UTC:
schmooz, My, you do ask some interesting questions. Here's my best crack at the answer to your three-part question: 1. Link(s) to the most accurate quote on total federal tax revenue for the most recent year it is available. (and accurate sources with estimates for even more recent years) This table from the 2009 Statistical Abstract of the United States: http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/tables/09s0457.pdf Table 457. Federal Budget Receipts by Source: 1990 to 2008 shows the federal government took in 2,521.2 billion dollars (=$2.521 trillion) in 2008. The vast bulk of this came from individual and corporate income and payroll taxes. A much smaller amount came from particular federal taxes like gasoline and telephone excise taxes. 2008 revenue was a bit smaller than 2007, likely due to the impact of our economic slowdown. Revenue may continue to shrink somewhat in 2009, since the overall economy has not yet turned around from its severe recession, but I didn't see a readily available official estimate for this number. 2. Link(s) to the most accurate source quotes on our current, total, national debt - right now and with projections ahead. (Throw in the link to what you feel is the most reliable "Internet National Debt Clock," if you can) At the US Treasury Departments "TreasuryDirect" website, you can see the current national debt "to the penny": http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np Total Public Debt Outstanding 8/13/2009 -- $11,662,830,881,880.07 ($11.66 trillion) An article from Wikipedia on the Public Debt: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt has a good section (near the end of the article) on "Calculating and projecting the debt". They rightfully point out that projections of future debt are uncertain, and differ considerably depending on the source. The article notes that in the White House's 2010 budget: "The debt is projected to nearly double to $20 trillion by 2015, but is expected to increase to nearly 100% of GDP by 2010 and remain at that level thereafter." 3. Link(s) to sources that clearly define "Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security un-funded liabilities. What does this mean, How are accurate are quotes on"un-funded liabilities" AND how are they related to our current national debt? The same Wikipedia article also has a section on unfunded obligations, which is the same notion as "unfunded liabilities". In essence, these programs are largely funded at the moment, as they all take in more money (revenue) than is being paid out (obligations). However, that situation is expected to reverse in the coming years, with the programs paying out more in obligations than they actually take in. This is what is meant by unfunded obligations or unfunded liabilities. (Part of the Medicare program is already operating at a deficit). Since the programs are currently in the black, so to speak, they don't have much bearing, at present, on current national debt, as far as I understand things. However, in the next decade, this is expected to reverse, and the programs are projected to become a major debt burden. As to how accurate any projections are, I suppose only time will tell. That's a controversial topic, and there's no real consensus, or generally agreed-on 'best estimate'. Current attempts to lower the overall costs of lifelong medical care may have a big impact on reducing overall costs of the health-related programs. Or they may not. Keep your fingers crossed. I suspect this information answers some of what you wanted to know, but probably opens up as many new questions as it answers. Feel free to post a Clarification request (or two or three or four...), so we can get in a bit of a discussion about what all this may mean. Cheers, David
Request for clarification by schmooz on Tue 18 Aug 2009 - 2:40 am UTC:
WOW David!!!!! 1. Answer to part one - no better link could ever be provided for a source a breakdown of yearly Federal Tax Revenue THANKS!!!!!! - 2. Answer to part two - no better link could be provided to show our national debt - today . . again THANKS! (Would "Intergovernmental Holdings," be the money we borrowed from other governments and owe to them AND is this further broken down by how much we owe to each country/government? (If anyone knows the link on how much we owe to each foreign government - please add it :)) Lots of "Internet National Debt Clocks" out there. Is there one you particularly think is accurate? Check out http://www.usdebtclock.org/ - what do you think? Are there any links to credible sources that provide debt projections (given new government programs and expenditures like the expansion of SCHIP, TARP(s) & Ommibus Bill & this health care reform bill when costs are more fully projected links that I can keep an eye on for this and future bills)? Don't spend more time on this unless you already have this information in your hip pocket BUT other Researchers or UCluers - please add what you know 3. I am still unclear on the meaning of unfunded liabilities. I will study this and reserve asking for a further clarification for just the parts of this question. I am extremely pleased with the links provided AND your comments too David. Please leave this question open a little longer in hopes that others will join in AND until (in the next Request for Clarification) I tell you what I understand after studying what you provided (and said) about unfunded liabilities. Thx
Request for clarification by schmooz on Tue 18 Aug 2009 - 2:43 am UTC:
David - perhaps I did not state it correctly. Of course I fully accept and appreciate your great answer to this question. I did not mean - leave the Question Open for somebody else to answer - What I meant is that I will wait to rate the question.
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Tue 18 Aug 2009 - 4:37 pm UTC:
Hi schmooz. Thanks for the feedback. I expect I'll be able to get back to this later today, and hopefully find some new materials for you. Stay tuned... David
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Tue 18 Aug 2009 - 8:21 pm UTC:
OK. Here we go with a bit of an update: ============================ http://www.treas.gov/tic/mfh.txt MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES China and Japan are the two biggies, and I believe your understanding of 'intergovernmental holdings' is correct. ============================ Sorry, but I haven't really evaluated the debt clocks, so I can't offer an opinion as to which may be the best. I'm content to rely on the government's official numbers (updated daily), along with an admittedly incomplete understanding of so-called 'off-book' obligations which, if factored in, may lead others to calculate debt differently. ============================ The projections from the Congressional Budget Office regarding likely debt scenarios are presented here: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10455/Long-TermOutlook_Testimony.1.1.shtm The Long-Term Budget Outlook Search through the testimony for the word 'debt' to get to the relevant discussions and tables. ============================ Like I said earlier, this may take a bit of back and forth before you have everything you need on these topics. Feel free to post another Clarification if there's anything more I can do for you. David
Request for clarification by schmooz on Sun 23 Aug 2009 - 8:06 pm UTC:
David, Please believe that I have lost neither appreciation nor interest in your answers to the parts in this question. I have been dealing with an on-going medical problem. It would be my hope that many people view this question and take time to review the links you have provided that provide the story on the financial condition of our country. I am still trying to understand the concept of unfunded liability and how it relates to our national debt (upwards of $11.72 trillion according to the Treasury Direct link you provided) and if it is fair to consider unfunded liabilities additional debt. You have provided me a link to Wikapedia and I will keep working on this. David – I would like to add something to this question instead of asking another question. I want to do this to have all your links inside of one question so that visitors who enter this question AND visitors I send to Uclue to read your answer – will have everything in one place. I will put $30 into your tip when I give my 5 star rating. I wish it were more but this is what I have. I would like links (hopefully government or treasury or cbo or official links) to the actual or estimated total cost costs in dollars for these programs and federal budgets: 1. TARP(s) 2. Stimulus Bill (HR1) 3. The recent Omnibus Bill 4. The 2008 budget (budgeted amount & actual amount if available) 5. The 2009 budget 6. The 2010 budget 7. Cap & Trade (whatever estimate there is on this) 8. This current health reform bill (whatever est.there is on it) I recognize that $30 is not that much money and whatever you are able to provide on this (0 – X links), the $30 has been well earned with my appreciation . Carolyn
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Sun 23 Aug 2009 - 9:47 pm UTC:
Carolyn, The Congressional Budget Office has a couple of documents that get right to your questions: TARP: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/100xx/doc10056/MainText.4.1.shtml The Troubled Asset Relief Program: Report on Transactions Through June 17, 2009 CAP & TRADE: http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/104xx/doc10497/08-03-Offsets.pdf The Use of Offsets to Reduce Greenhouse Gases I'll post others as I find them. David
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Mon 24 Aug 2009 - 3:18 am UTC:
HR1 Stimulus Bill CBO Cost Estimates http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9989/hr1conference.pdf
Accepted and rated by schmooz on Mon 24 Aug 2009 - 11:23 am UTC:
Just exactly what I asked for . . . and more! David you did a fabulous job. Could not have been better. I hope many visit this question and check out the links you provided, for themselves, to find out the true financial crisis the US is in. Those we elect are taking a wrecking ball to our US economy and election after election we keep sending these very same people back to Washington again and again to continue to do more damage! We just gotta be nuts! Thanks again for your hard work and - from time to time - if you just happen to run into more links that may add to the knowledge base for all of us to use as a resource, Thanks again.
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Mon 24 Aug 2009 - 2:45 pm UTC:
Thanks so much...your kind feedback is really appreciated. Here are some budget links that I wanted to add to the collection: http://www.gpoaccess.gov/USbudget/fy10/pdf/fy10-newera.pdf Fiscal Year 2010 Budget Overview Document http://www.gpoaccess.gov/USbudget/fy09/pdf/budget/overview.pdf Overview of the 2009 Budget http://www.gpoaccess.gov/USbudget/fy08/pdf/budget/overview.pdf Overview of the 2008 Budget http://www.gpoaccess.gov/USbudget/browse.html Budget documents for the past 15 years All the best. David
Request for clarification by schmooz on Mon 24 Aug 2009 - 11:53 pm UTC:
David, I thought you gave me a link that went to a year by year Table of GDP or some sort of link on Treasrydirect where I can look up Gross Domestic Product at the end of each year? On the second link you provided, I can pull up the national debt BUT I cannot find (after looking a long time) GDPs. I promise not to become your worse nightmare. Yup. I have tried the US Tresury websites and wandered around on the websites you provided but no such luck. Thx. David
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Tue 25 Aug 2009 - 12:16 am UTC:
>>I promise not to become your worse nightmare<< No need to worry on that front...not at all. You're more than welcome to ask for clarifications and additional information, and you've been more than reasonable in your requests. I'll take a look for GDP info and post what I find, probably tomorrow. Cheers, David
Answer clarification by Researcher davidsarokin on Tue 25 Aug 2009 - 3:22 am UTC:
Carolyn, Here's the GDP data, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm Table 3A. Gross Domestic Product and Related Measures
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